New Insider Trading Questions Surface for Polymarket Following Iran Ceasefire Wagers

(AsiaGameHub) –   A new round of precisely timed transactions on Polymarket is reigniting concerns that individuals with confidential knowledge may have profited. The focus of the latest scrutiny is trading activity surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

The outcome followed a now-recognizable script: a handful of anonymous accounts secured profits amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

In a recurring trend, the questionable trading took place in the hours preceding President Donald Trump‘s formal announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States.

Blockchain analysts on X, who track Polymarket for indications of insider trading, initially highlighted several wallets that seemed to place remarkably accurate bets on the ceasefire.

In an X post, the blockchain analytics company Lookonchain pointed to one trader, “Fernandoinfante,” who converted a $13,200 investment into over $463,000—a 35-fold return—by betting “Yes” on the ceasefire.

Lookonchain further reported that four other wallets suspected of insider trading collectively gained $663,000, with the majority being established and funded on the very day the two-week ceasefire was finalized.

Four suspected insiders made $663K betting on a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7.

Most of these wallets:

• Were newly created and funded on April 7
• Bought “YES” just hours before the ceasefire
• Had no prior activity — only bet on this event
• Entered at very low odds: 3.9%,… pic.twitter.com/UtuVapSeEK

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) April 8, 2026

All the trades under investigation occurred on Polymarket’s offshore platform, which operates outside the regulatory oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), unlike its U.S.-based service.

These latest claims emerge only weeks after Kalshi and Polymarket publicized new safeguards designed to prevent insider trading on their sites.

Calculated Wagers & Almost Perfect Timing

The significant profits earned by the traders are not the primary cause for suspicion; rather, it is the distinctive pattern of their trading behavior.

The compelling reason to suspect insider involvement is the extraordinary accuracy of the bets. According to Lookonchain, the wallets placed their wagers when the perceived probability of a ceasefire by April 7 was as low as 3.9%, 10.3%, 6.7%, and 2.9%.

A separate trader, “BlueHorseshoe86,” who had previously gained $260,000 by correctly predicting Nicolás Maduro’s departure by January 31, is said to have made an additional $194,000 on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire markets.

The on-chain analysis firm Bubblemaps stated on X that it discovered a network of linked accounts that accurately predicted both the February surprise attack on Iran and the April ceasefire. These accounts profited by more than $600,000 from the ceasefire trade.

One of the top-earning wallets in this cluster amassed total profits exceeding $400,000 while repeatedly altering its identifiers—from “nothingeverhappens911” to “nothingeverfrickinghappens” and now “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg”—in a seeming effort to obscure its trail.

BREAKING: THEY DID IT AGAIN

Last night, the SAME cluster of Polymarket accounts made $600k predicting the US Iran ceasefire, before changing their handles

Why are they hiding? https://t.co/GBVkgqQnii pic.twitter.com/Fe0pqZKkco

— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) April 8, 2026

These seemingly implausible winning streaks have led social media commentators and market observers to speculate that the traders had access to undisclosed information, effectively trading while viewing “tomorrow’s headlines” on a separate screen.

Ceasefire Bets Fit a Wider Pattern on Polymarket

The ceasefire market is part of a broader, well-documented history of exceptionally well-timed wagers on Polymarket.

In February, an identical scenario played out at the onset of “Operation Epic Fury,” the joint U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, when six newly funded wallets earned $1.2 million by betting on the attack mere hours before it commenced.

Likewise, in January, three wallets profited by over $630,000 by wagering on the capture of Maduro. These accounts were typically funded days ahead of time and concentrated solely on single-outcome markets prone to “insider” activity.

The cumulative weight of this alleged insider trading has captured the attention of U.S. lawmakers, who have pressed the CFTC to take action against illegal trading by federal employees on prediction markets.

Legislators have also put forward multiple bills aimed at curbing insider trading by government officials on these event-based trading platforms. The newest proposed law is a bicameral piece of legislation, the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, introduced by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR).